Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 15.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.