Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 48.4%. A win for CSKA Moscow had a probability of 25.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.