Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-0 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.