Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 20.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Dynamo Moscow win it was 0-1 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.