Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 46.1%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.