Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 56.59%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 19.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.