Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 58.38%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 18.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.