Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 53.26%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 24.01% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Zenit St Petersburg in this match.