Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 72.39%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 10.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.28%) and 3-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.03%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.