Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 69.66%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 11.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.