Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Makhachkala win with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Makhachkala win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dynamo Makhachkala would win this match.