Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 27.76% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Krylia Sovetov would win this match.