Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 63.54%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 14.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.