Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 20.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a FC Krasnodar win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.