Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 54.43%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for CSKA Moscow had a probability of 22.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a CSKA Moscow win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.