Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 61.63%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 15.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.17%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Rubin Kazan win it was 1-0 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.