Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 43.9%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.