Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 59.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 17.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.68%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Rubin Kazan win it was 0-1 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lokomotiv Moscow in this match.