Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Akron Tolyatti had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Akron Tolyatti win was 1-0 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.