Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 62.05%. A draw had a probability of 22.77% and a win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 15.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.35%) and 2-1 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%) , while for a Rubin Kazan win it was 0-1 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.