Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 56.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.64% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 19.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.74%) and 1-2 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%) , while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 1-0 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.