Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 52.37%. A draw had a probability of 26.04% and a win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 21.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%) , while for a Krylia Sovetov win it was 1-0 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.