Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 45.76%. A draw had a probability of 31.37% and a win for Baltika had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (7.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.55%) , while for a Baltika win it was 0-1 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood.