Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.18%) and 1-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.