Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 27.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.36%) and 0-2 (7.85%). The likeliest Dynamo Moscow win was 2-1 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.