Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 41.48%. A win for Al Ahli had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Gharafa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.74%) and 2-0 (5.88%). The likeliest Al Ahli win was 1-2 (7.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%).