Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 65.83%. A draw had a probability of 20.04% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 14.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.29%) and 2-1 (11.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%) , while for a NK Varazdin win it was 0-1 (5.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.