Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 36%. A win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 29.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest NK Varazdin win was 1-0 (10.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.