Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gorica win with a probability of 36.74%. A win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gorica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest NK Varazdin win was 1-0 (9.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.