Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 42.4%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 28.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.48%) and 2-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a HNK Rijeka win it was 0-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hajduk Split would win this match.