Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 62.91%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 12.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.52%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.95%), while for a NK Varazdin win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HNK Rijeka in this match.