Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 45.04%. A win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Dinamo Zagreb win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.