Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 44.98%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 26.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.02%), while for a HNK Rijeka win it was 0-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.