Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 47.9%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Osijek had a probability of 25.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.24%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Osijek win it was 0-1 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.