Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 45.83%. A win for NK Lokomotiva had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.55%). The likeliest NK Lokomotiva win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.