Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Olimpija Ljubljana win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 25.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Olimpija Ljubljana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (9.01%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NK Olimpija Ljubljana would win this match.