Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 68.89%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 12.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.