Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 67.04%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 12.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.41%) and 1-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.62%), while for a NK Varazdin win it was 1-0 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.