Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Istra 1961 win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Gorica had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Istra 1961 win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (6.93%). The likeliest Gorica win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.