Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 59.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for NK Lokomotiva had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a NK Lokomotiva win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.