Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 15.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a NK Varazdin win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.