Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 66.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 12.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.49%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.