Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 69.83%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Gorica had a probability of 10.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.34%) and 3-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Gorica win it was 0-1 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.