Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 68.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.37%) and 3-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 0-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.