Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.13%) and 1-2 (7.81%). The likeliest NK Varazdin win was 1-0 (11.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.