Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Varazdin win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Gorica had a probability of 29.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Varazdin win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Gorica win was 1-0 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.