Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 56.92%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for NK Lokomotiva had a probability of 19.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a NK Lokomotiva win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.