Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 42.91%. A win for Hajduk Split had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Hajduk Split win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.