Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 56.66%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 18.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.99%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a NK Varazdin win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Hajduk Split in this match.