Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 66.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Sibenik had a probability of 12.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.64%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Sibenik win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.